Pr.E.A.L.S

Pr.E.A.L.S

Many nations across the world have observed an increase in their estimates of the prevalence of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). Some nations observe this through improving their ability to identify existing ALS cases, while others are seeing more diagnoses in general. Individuals affected by ALS are also expected to live longer as new treatments emerge and access to multidisciplinary care improves. Nations must start preparing their healthcare infrastructure for the increase in prevalence. However, future projections of prevalence are notoriously difficult to estimate. An ever-changing landscape of new treatments and best practices for care adds another layer of complexity to these projections.

Pr.E.A.L.S (Prevalence Estimation for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis) is a tool designed to address some of these challenges and aid nations in long-term planning of care for individuals diagnosed with ALS. This innovative tool estimates the prevalence of ALS by taking into account population ageing, observed increase in prevalence and how new treatments and care strategies may affect future prevalence. Pr.E.A.L.S empowers decision-makers and healthcare authorities to formulate informed strategies, allocate resources effectively, and implement targeted interventions for the optimal management and support of individuals affected by ALS. The tool serves as a pivotal asset in fostering a proactive and sustainable approach towards addressing the multifaceted challenges associated with ALS on a national and global scale.

We invite you to make your own prevalence projections by interacting with the prompts below. Please follow the instructions and click "Submit" to download the results of the parameters you have inputted. Projections are calculated up through 2040.

Calculate ALS Prevalence Projections

Each box below corresponds to a parameter that Pr.E.A.L.S. uses to calculate prevalence projections through 2040. Default parameters for each country are based on the most recent research available. Citations are listed at the bottom of the page. You can also change the parameters to see how increases or decreases affect projections.

First, please select the country you wish to make projections for. Default Incidence Rate and Increase in Prevalence Per Year are from the latest research performed in their respective countries. Definitions for each of these parameters can be found in the "Terms Explanation" Section further down the page.

If your nation is not among those listed please contact us ([email protected] and [email protected]).

Modify Treatment and Care Parameters

This section allows us to calculate the effect of different treatments and care practices. For more details on treatment, see the "References" section at the bottom of the page. Each treatment allows us to adjust the following parameters:

  • Months – Average number of months predicted to add to life expectancy.
  • % – Expected percentage of the population the treatment is predicted to impact.
  • Year – The first year that individuals with ALS are expected to gain access to the treatment.

Default parameters are based on the most recent research available.

Months
%
Year
Months
%
Year
Months
%
Year

Terms Explanation

An increase in survival per year refers to the annual growth or rise in the survival within a given population or geographic area. It can be dependent from new drugs, or a better healtcare. In the context of health and epidemiology, an increase in survival per year often signifies a rising trend in the occurrence of a medical condition or disease within a specified timeframe.
This metric is crucial for understanding the evolving landscape of health issues and helps healthcare professionals, researchers, and policymakers anticipate and respond to changing patterns in disease prevalence. For instance, if the prevalence of a disease is said to increase by a certain percentage or number per year, it implies a compounded growth in the overall number of cases annually. This information is vital for planning healthcare resources, implementing preventive measures, and developing targeted interventions to manage and mitigate the impact of the escalating health concern over time.
The incidence rate is a statistical measure that quantifies the frequency or occurrence of new cases of a specific event or condition within a defined population during a given period of time. It is commonly used in epidemiology and public health research to assess the risk of developing a particular disease or experiencing a certain outcome. The incidence rate is typically expressed as the number of new cases per unit of person-time at risk, such as person-years or person-months. This measure allows for the comparison of disease occurrence across different populations or time periods, accounting for variations in population size and the duration of observation. Mathematically, the incidence rate is calculated using the following formula:
Incidence = Cases / Total person at risk in interval * Multiplier
The multiplier is often expressed per a specific unit of person-time. We have set the Multiplier to 100,000 person-years to standardize the rate for easier interpretation.

References

  • Bureau UC. Census.gov. [cited 2024 Apr 30]. International Database. Available from: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/idb.html
  • Home - Office for National Statistics [Internet]. [cited 2024 Jul 22]. Available from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/
  • Wolfson C, Gauvin DE, Ishola F, Oskoui M. Global Prevalence and Incidence of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Systematic Review. Neurology. 2023 Aug 8;101(6):e613–23.
  • Mehta P, Raymond J, Punjani R, Larson T, Han M, Bove F, et al. Incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the United States, 2014-2016. Amyotroph Lateral Scler Frontotemporal Degener. 2022 Aug;23(5–6):378–82.
  • Xu L, Chen L, Wang S, Feng J, Liu L, Liu G, et al. Incidence and prevalence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in urban China: a national population-based study. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2020 May;91(5):520–5.